Consultant Scott Gillespie of tClara did some math to depict how corporate airfares, if based on a flight’s carbon emissions, can help purchasers and airlines meet climate goals.

Gillespie pointed out that few, if any, major airlines are on pace to reach their Net Zero targets by 2050, that “breakthroughs in chemistry and engineering” to create more efficient propulsion won’t occur any time soon and that economic and political levers are comparatively simple, powerful and immediately effective. “Think price, demand, profits, taxes and policy,” he wrote in a March 2024 Op Ed.

Based on carbon intensities (kilograms of CO2 per dollar spent on air travel), he calculated “carbon-acceptable” airfares across four possible climate change scenarios through 2050. By paying such fares without increasing travel budgets, he argued, companies are guaranteed to meet their carbon budgets. But they must “accept the premise of paying more to pollute less.” They would also cut down on lower-value business trips.

The chart is based on tClara’s analysis of data from the International Air Transport Association and the International Council on Clean Transportation. The “business as usual” red line projections — minimal improvement in carbon emissions — is a “worst-case scenario” with no meaningful industry decarbonization.

Explore our coverage of sustainable corporate travel, including articles on sustainable aviation fuel, profiles on corporate travel sustainability at Bain, Meta and Swiss Re, and explainers on emissions reporting and carbon removal.